Indicator: Simulated regional GDP - in the new normality scenario

Simulated regional GDP - in the new normality scenario.

This scenario highlights that a major rebound from the 2020 downturn can be expected:
• In general, areas hit the hardest by the health crisis tend to significantly rebound (within the CE area, this involves Italian regions);
• Central and eastern regions of the CE area tend to register slightly lower growth rates in the rebound period 2021-2030, but their overall economic performance remains stronger in the long run, due to the lower losses registered during the 2020 lockdown;
• Some capital cities tend to recover more quickly than second and third-tier cities (e.g. Berlin and Bucharest);
• Within the CE area, while most regions suffer minor economic losses in the initial stage of the pandemic, they tend to fare less well in its aftermath. In some areas in the CE area, all located in northern Italy, the rebound is more significant and offsets the losses accumulated in the first period. On the other hand, many regions in the south-eastern tip of Germany, Bavaria included, are foreseen to grow faster than the average EU27 rates in the rebound period, while also suffering from minor losses in spring 2020.

Moreover, in the New Normality scenario, economic disparities between CE countries experience an overall decrease. The “between country” disparities decrease because the rebound is high in poorer countries, while the “within country” disparities increase because the pre-COVID tendency towards concentrated development remains (i.e. a process of economic growth whereby economic resources and productivity tend to disproportionally increase in a few areas of the countries, not homogeneously).