Type: Project Other Data - June 21, 2019, 4:51 p.m.
Average annual growth prediction of GDP by NUTS 2 in 2 different scenarios. It has been calculated using the GDP in M€ and population of 2015 available in the ESPON Database and the GDP per capita estimation by applying the econometric model MASST4 of 2035. It has been assumed a constant annual growth.
The "reference" scenario follows the ongoing trends; it is based on stable demography, increasing ageing and migration; it is based on the general assumption that the structural changes that occurred during the crisis remain prevalent in future, with a likely moderate growth and increasing disparities.
The "integration" scenario assumes successful territorial governance processes in the next decade, inside Member States as well as at European level. The scenario incorporates more intensive co-development projects in neighbouring countries as well as better coordinated migration, trade and foreign policies and improvement of the quality of government everywhere in Europe thanks to incentives and conditionalities applied through EU policies.