Type: Project Other Data - Aug. 16, 2021, 4:42 p.m.
GDP contractions in EU in 2020 due to COVID are based on the MASST model (MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social Territorial model). The MASST model is a macroeconometric regional growth model built to simulate regional growth in the medium and long-run. The acronym contains the different dimensions – Macroeconomic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial – on which the model is built. Regional growth is in fact explained by macroeconomic elements that play a prominent role in national growth trajectories, capturing the national/global demand framework which involves all regions.
MASST simulations turn out to be all in all very close to those presented by the European Commission in 2020 ("Summer 2020 economic forecast: an even deeper recession with wider divergencies") and clearly hint at a major loss mostly for countries both most directly affected by the medical consequences of the pandemic, while simultaneously opting for early, and most severe, lockdown measures. Interestingly, the strong interrelations among EU economies have transferred the negative effects of the lockdowns even to places where measures have been somewhat more relaxed (e.g., Austria).