Type: Project Other Data - Aug. 16, 2021, 4:44 p.m.
Set of forecasts on the short-term regional costs of the COVID-19 lockdown measures. These forecasts make up the foundations of the possible future scenarios for the economic, environmental, and social development of the CE area:
- A New Normality scenario whereby the recent effects of the COVID-19 related lockdown and their long-term effects and policy responses (e.g. Recovery Fund) are modelled in the medium term;
- A first “Integration” scenario, assuming further economic integration among CE countries;
- A second scenario of “Partial Integration”, i.e. where we assume that the integration process will slow down because of COVID-19, limiting institutional and economic interactions (e.g. by postponing agreements and hampering the levels of trust among individuals)
In this respect, the project team calculated also the difference between the three simulated scenarios (new normality, partial integration, integration scenarios) and EU28 average annual GDP growth rates, per NUTS2 region. More specifically, three indicators are extracted from the analysis:
1. 2020-2030 average regional GDP growth rates in the new normality scenario (difference with respect to EU28)
2. Difference between average annual GDP growth rates of the Integration scenario and the New normality scenario (difference with respect to EU28)
3. Difference between average annual GDP growth rates of the Partial integration scenario and the Integration scenario (difference with respect to EU28)