Type: Project Other Data - June 16, 2022, 9:56 a.m.
Brexit is a significant economic shock that is related among others to various kinds of disruptions, reformation of trade barriers and costs, reorganisation of regional relationships and partnerships, and changes in trade flows and networks.
This quantitative Scenario tackles the issue of Brexit and how this would affect the export flows (trade of goods and services) between the European regions (NUTS2 level). The analysis is based on regional data of export flows that cover the period 2010-2018 as estimated by the ESPON project (2021). In order to estimate the Brexit-induced trade effects, the time period spanned to 2026 including actual data (2010-2018) and forecast data (2019-2026). This analysis studies as well the sectoral dimension of trade effects of Brexit. We include industries classified according to their productivity level.
# Broad sectors Sectors used in trade Sectors used in production
1 Lower-productivity goods 01-15, 25, 31-35, 37, 41-71, 81-83, 91-97 A, C13-C18, C23-C25, C31-C33
2 Higher-productivity goods 16-24, 26-30, 36, 38-40, 72-80, 84-90 B, C10-C12, C26-C30, C19-C22
3 Lower-productivity services SA, SB, SC, SD, SH, SK, SW G, H, I, P, O, Q, R, S, U
4 Higher-productivity services SE, SF, SG, SI, SJ F, J, K, L, M, N
* Sectors used in trade: HS2012 for goods, EBOPS2010 for services
* Sectors used in production: NACE Rev2